We'll be keeping it simple on this fine Monday in the NHL, looking to two high-profile shooters in inviting matchups. Plus-money never hurts the cause as we scour the board for our favorite value spots.
It's been Nikolaj Ehlers who has picked up the slack for the Winnipeg Jets in the wake of Kyle Connor's injury. In the three games without Connor, Ehlers has registered nine, nine and 10 shot attempts, going over this line in two straight, both at home.
As long as that volume continues, he should be a safe bet here against a Montreal Canadiens team allowing 36 shots per game on the road over the past month. Ehlers finished with seven shots on goal when he saw the Habs earlier this season.
If for a moment, we assume that Ehlers maintains that elite 9+ shot attempts volume, then this line looks all the better (as does 5+ shots at +220). Ehlers has 9+ attempts in 37 games over the past few seasons, going over 3.5 shots in 86% of them, finishing with 5+ at a 63% rate.
Dylan Larkin is back just a little over a week after a scary incident saw him unconscious on the ice. There's some hesitation here in backing a player in his first game back, which is why I am moving this down to just a half-unit for myself.
Excluding the game in which he was knocked out early, Detroit's top-line center was rolling, notching 4+ shots in six straight games. He should get his chances here against an Anaheim Ducks team that hands out plenty of power play opportunities, Larkin leads the Red Wings in PP shots this season.
Larkin has enjoyed some big games against the Ducks recently, finishing his past three meetings with five, seven and five SOG.
Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.
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